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Publication Data snooping in equity premium prediction

Type

Working Paper

Institution(s)

University of Hamburg, University of Notre Dame

Year

2017

Author(s)

Viktoria-Sophie Bartsch

Hubert Dichtl

Wolfgang Drobetz

Andreas Neuhierl

Research Area

Empirical asset pricing

Keywords

Equity risk premium prediction

Abstract

We study the performance of a comprehensive set of equity premium forecasting strategies that have been shown to outperform the historical mean out-of-sample when tested in isolation. Using a multi-ple testing framework, we find that previous evidence on out-of-sample predictability is primarily due to data snooping. We are not able to identify any forecasting strategy that produces robust and statistically significant economic gains after controlling for data snooping biases and transaction costs. By focusing on the application of equity premium prediction, our findings support Harvey’s (2017) more general concern that many of the published results in financial economics will fail to hold up.

Presentations

EFMA 2017 (Athens), FMA 2017 (Boston)

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